In mid-January 2026, the price of raw materials for Pacific cod (H&G) longline fishing in the United States continued to rise. Despite the strong market demand, the industry began to worry that domestic prices might have approached the upper limit.

  According to the mid-year assessment report of UCN, the prices of all J-cut specifications and bone-in cod (CBO) have further risen compared to the end of last year. Although some buyers believe that prices have peaked, the overall market heat has not cooled down, especially among international buyers, where the export price from the United States is even higher than the domestic sales price.

The export quotations are higher than those in the domestic market of the United States

Many industry insiders pointed out that with the reduction of quotas for true cod in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the global raw material supply is tightening, but the buying enthusiasm still persists.

  A representative of an American processing enterprise disclosed that the average selling price to China and the European Union recently is about $0.15 per pound (equivalent to $330 per ton) higher than that in the domestic market: "The domestic market in the United States may have reached its ceiling, but international customers are still willing to pay higher prices. We don't want the domestic market to come to a standstill."

  Another exporter said that although European buyers have long complained about the "inflated price" of Pacific cod, they still continue to purchase it - this indicates that the market has not yet reached the buyers' tolerance limit.

Atlantic cod has driven up the chain of prices

  Analysts believe that as long as the price of Atlantic cod continues to rise, the price of Pacific cod is unlikely to fall either. The brief buyer boycott that emerged at the end of 2025 quickly subsided. Now, the price of Norwegian cod from the Barents Sea has risen again, driving the entire white fish market to rise in tandem.

  Data shows that the price of twice-frozen cod loins in the US market has reached a 52-week high, reaching the historical peak range of the same period last year. Traders expect that there will be another round of price adjustments in the first quarter of 2026.

The demand for CBO is exceptionally strong

  Meanwhile, the price of bone-in cod (CBO) has also risen significantly. This product is usually mainly used in the production of pickled dried cod (Bacalao), with purchases concentrated during Lent and the peak season before Christmas. However, demand will remain high throughout 2025.

  A seller said, "In previous years, the CBO business would come to an end before the end of the year, but last year, from October to mid-December, the market hardly cooled down."

  This means that the traditional seasonal purchasing model is being broken, and the trend of enterprises purchasing and inventory throughout the year is becoming increasingly obvious.

The imbalance between supply and demand remains a driving force

  The main driver of the Pacific cod market in 2026 will still be supply constraints. The assessment results of true cod resources in the North Pacific waters of the United States, Russia and Japan all show that the population is under pressure, and the climate fluctuations in the Arctic and Bering Sea regions further affect the fishing efficiency.

  In addition, after the quota for Atlantic cod was reduced by 16% and that for Pacific cod by 14,000 tons, the market's reliance on long-line cod fishing in the United States has become even higher.

  The domestic inventory of frozen cod raw materials in the United States has approached a low level. Meanwhile, some processing plants in Alaska have delayed shipments due to the storm, causing a tight supply in the spot market and delaying the execution of some export contracts.

The international market has become the price leader

  It is widely believed in the industry that the price ceiling in the domestic market of the United States may have emerged, but there is still room for growth in the international market. European and Chinese processing enterprises have begun to accept higher quotations due to quota shortages and difficulties in raw material substitution.

  Chinese processing plants, especially before the Spring Festival, still have replenishment demands for secondary frozen export orders. Although some enterprises complain about the high costs, they are still making small purchases in order to maintain their operating rates.

  An American trader who has long been engaged in China's export business disclosed: "In the current high-price environment, Chinese buyers are cautious about their moves, but they know that if they don't lock in their goods, the prices might be even higher after the Spring Festival."

Outlook for 2026: High prices may persist

  According to industry opinions, the upward cycle of Pacific cod has not yet ended. As long as the Atlantic market remains strong, quotas do not ease, and the consumption side does not weaken significantly, prices are likely to remain at a high level.

  However, some analysts have warned that if prices further deviate from the terminal affordability range, domestic catering and retail demand in the United States may experience stagflation.