The price of Russian pollock has reached a record high, leaving Chinese and European buyers stuck in a $200 per ton price gap deadlock

  The price of Russian frozen head and offal (H&G) pollock raw material rose again in the 50th week (December 8th to 14th), reaching the highest level on record. The high raw material prices directly led to a price dispute of about 200 US dollars per ton between Chinese processors and European buyers in the 2026 fish fillet contract negotiations, and the market was in a stalemate.

 Raw material prices have soared, causing Chinese processors to postpone signing orders

  According to foreign media reports, the cost and freight (CFR China) spot price of H&G pollock in Russia rose by 25 US dollars per ton in the 50th week compared with the previous week, reaching a record high.

  Due to the continuous increase in raw material costs, Chinese processing plants generally refuse to sign the double-frozen full fillet block contracts in advance for the first quarter of 2026. Several industry insiders disclosed that the current negotiation prices for some long-term supply contracts are 150 to 250 US dollars per ton lower than the spot prices. However, Russian sellers are not very interested in locking in orders at low prices, and it is expected that prices will still rise in the first quarter of next year.

  Three Chinese exporters confirmed that there is a price difference of at least 200 US dollars per ton between European buyers and Chinese processors. Against the backdrop of the current high prices of H&G raw materials, this gap is sufficient to erode processing profits.

  A European importer said, "Some large retail suppliers do want to secure supplies for next year, but processing plants are reluctant to sign orders at a reduced price." At present, the inventory of H&G in China is extremely low, and processors are more willing to wait and see.

  Another Chinese processor said that he would postpone negotiations with European clients until the end of January 2026 and set prices after the supply of raw materials stabilizes

 The market generally expects that pollock will not be cheap

  It is widely believed in the industry that the prices of both single-frozen and double-frozen pollock fillets are still on the rise. According to UCN's assessment in November, the quotations for boneless single-frozen (PBO) pollock blocks from Russia and the United States have continued to rise.

  In addition, Russian pollock fillets are subject to a 13.7% tariff in the European Union (as they are not included in the Autonomous Tariff Quota Scheme (ATQ)), and the actual tax-inclusive price is close to the price of single-frozen fish fillets from the United States.

  A European purchasing executive pointed out: "There is indeed demand at present, but the price difference is too large - about 200 US dollars per ton - and neither side is willing to make concessions, so it can only be temporarily halted."

 Supply outlook: The policies of the United States and Russia are diverging

  On the supply side, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the government on December 8 to draft a bill to increase the quota for pollock in the western Bering Sea (TAC) by approximately 10% in 2026, from 627,000 tons to about 690,000 tons.

  The total quota for pollock in Russia is tentatively set at 2.42 million tons, representing a slight increase of 1.7% compared to the revised level in 2025. However, Russia's actual catch has remained stable at around 2 million tons in the past two years, with a quota utilization rate of only 87% to 88%, lower than the previous normal of over 90%.

  At the same time, Putin also called for an assessment of a new export tariff mechanism to encourage the development of the domestic aquatic product processing industry.

  In the United States, the North Pacific Fisheries Management Board (NPFMC) approved a 2026 Bering Sea pollock quota of 1.375 million tons on December 7, which is basically the same as this year, but significantly reduced the quota for the Gulf of Alaska by 25% to 134,000 tons.

  This means that the total supply of pollock in the United States will decline, while Russia is attempting to increase production. The policies of the two countries form a sharp contrast.